Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Time for a Change? Donald Trump Will Test a Forecasting Model

 The article that I read was about how Donald Trump is testing an election-forecasting model. The model deals with how voters are more likely to give the opposing party an opportunity to govern after a party has held office for two or more terms. However Trump’s reputation, irresponsibility, and lack of experience are overshadowing this time for a change in the typical political forecasting model. In the past this unlikeable factor has be overlooked and even improved upon when considering a candidate during the general elections, with Trump this seems unlikely given his nature. Data in this particular story is used to analyze how the election process in terms of changing governing parties typically works versus how it will work during this coming election. The creators of this model and another similar to it characterize Republicans as the favorite in this election with an estimated probability of winning of approximately 60 percent. However Trump and his unfavorable nature place him around 25 percent. This story is employing a mixture of both qualitative and quantitative reasoning, rigorous and empirical approach because while the data is numerically based, what will happen with this coming election is purely based off of logic and observations. The data in this story can be changed in different ways so that is more based on quantitative reasoning and information. Or conversely it could be exclusively qualitative information as opposed to a mix of the two types of reasoning. The data in this story is used as a prediction of what will come in this election and how this will differ from elections past in addition to what is to be typically expected during an election process.

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/11/upshot/voters-fears-about-trump-may-outweigh-wish-for-change.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=5&pgtype=sectionfront&_r=0

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